Why Ripple’s XRP price is at risk of a fall

Ripple’s native token, XRP, hovered around $0.38 despite a mid-March rally that saw a 28% increase in crypto market capitalization. Its poor price performance could intensify as crypto whales appear to be entering a selling spree.

ripple whales for sale

XRP holders missed out on the top of the recent crypto rally as the price hovered between $0.35 and $0.38 over the past 30 days. On-chain metrics now offer a bearish outlook for the third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Data from blockchain forensics firm Sentiment shows that XRP whales have apparently entered a selling frenzy despite a recent bull rally that pushed the crypto market capitalization above $1.1 trillion.

Crypto whales with balances of 10 million to 100 million XRP have offloaded 30 billion XRP worth approximately $11 million. Between March 9 and March 20, this group of whales reduced their holdings from 4.42 billion to 4.1 billion XRP tokens.

Ripple (XRP) whale activity, March 2023.
Ripple (XRP) whale activity, March 2023. Source: Emotion

A closer look reveals that crypto investors holding 10 million to 100 million XRP have become increasingly savvy in recent months. Since the FTX crash transition in November 2022, they often sold off just before the price dropped and re-accumulated near local bottoms.

If this trend continues, the current sell-off presents a bearish outlook for XRP price in the coming weeks.

Another factor stressing a bearish outlook for XRP is the dwindling developer activity on the Ripple-backed network. As of March 20, developer activity has declined by more than 60% since mid-February.

Ripple (XRP) Development Activity, March 2023.
Ripple (XRP) Development Activity, March 2023. Source: Emotion

Development activity indicates how much attention and resources are devoted to improving the XRP Ledger, adding new features, and expanding its capabilities. The continued decline is a negative sign as investors may interpret it as a lack of community interest and technical support, which could further weaken XRP’s long-term price prospects.

XRP Price Prediction: When to Bottom?

The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) metric provides data relevant to upcoming XRP price actions. Most holders who bought XRP over the past 30 days are sitting on unrealized losses of around 5%. A critical look at the recent bear market pattern shows that XRP holders have a tolerance of 10% losses before they can stop selling.

This means that XRP could drop to $0.33 in the coming weeks. And if this stop doesn’t hold, the selloff could continue until the XRP price drops 25% towards $0.29.

Ripple (XRP) MVRV, March 2023
Ripple (XRP) MVRV, March 2023. Source: Emotion

If XRP can shake off the current bearish signs, its price could continue to rise until most holders start booking some profits around the 13% profit line at $0.42. This could result in a change in market sentiment which intensifies buying pressure, resulting in a rally towards $0.49.


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