When is it down?

The price of bitcoin (BTC) has investors waiting for a significant move, but there is a possibility that a slow and steady price consolidation could keep the market waiting.

The price of bitcoin has maintained a major downtrend for most of this year. As BTC price has been trading below $20,000 for over two weeks, market participants are on the lookout for signs of a breakout.

With no major catalyst for the breakout in sight, many in the market are considering whether the $19,000 range is the bottom of the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price: The Big Picture

The price of BTC maintained a range-bound momentum, with the price of bitcoin falling by more than 35% after the June 2022 drop. In mid-August, bitcoin price made a local high of around $25,000, but as the bulls could not keep the price above that level, another pullback of around 25% occurred over the next few weeks.

BTC/USDT 1-Day Chart | Source: TradingView

After nearly four months of stable price action, it makes sense to better understand BTC’s long-term trend to see when the bitcoin price might actually bottom out.

Data from Sentiment presented that the Mean Dollar Invested Edge (MDIA) is at an all-time high, meaning there has been no distribution of coins over a long period of time. On the other hand, the trend of MVRV (3 years) for the last one and a half years is very similar to the situation in 2017-2019.

Source: Sentiment

It is worth noting that the price was around the same level in late 2018 when the same pattern as MVRV.

In addition, social volume has dropped significantly since the market top, and sentiment is simultaneously making a much lower low than a high.

Source: Sentiment

Usually, when sentiment is negative, the price moves in the opposite direction of the herd.

Market participants are Rekt

Bitcoin’s network-gain-profit-loss shows that in BTC, participants experienced losses at the same level as in 2019, however, in USD terms, the losses are much greater as the price of BTC has almost 10x since then. has increased. NPRL is a good indicator that tells how accurate the market participants are.

Source: Sentiment

In addition, Glassnode data highlights that the price of bitcoin may be primed for an explosion of volatility, with both realized and options volatility falling to historic lows. Interestingly, despite liquidations being at an all-time low, futures open interest has risen to an all-time high.

Source: Glassnode

Thus, the current situation may give some hope to bitcoin hodlers looking at the long-term data; However, history does not always repeat itself. In case of a bearish outcome, BTC price could revisit the $16,000 and then the $14,000 price level.

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