Cardano (ADA) price has reached a long-term support area. Nevertheless, the Fibonacci level and wave count indicate that further downside is expected before the final bullish reversal.
ADA price has been trending downwards since reaching an all-time high of $3.10 in August 2021. Cardano price declined to a low of $0.35 on October 13th. Measuring from an all-time high, this shortfall is of 88%.
Currently, ADA price is trading within the $0.37 horizontal support area. This is an important support level as it has previously acted as resistance in May 2018 and February 2021. After Cardano price finally managed to break out, it accelerated to an all-time high of 2021.
However, the RSI is yet to support a potential bullish reversal. This is mainly because the bearish divergence trend line that led to the current downtrend is still intact (green line).
Unless the RSI manages to break above 50 and move higher, the price of the ADA price trend cannot be considered bullish.
Cardano Price: Down When?
A wave count technical analysis shows that ADA price is declining at an accelerated rate since completing the count for a symmetrical triangle (white) on September 10 (red icon). Since then, the sub-wave count has been given in Black. This suggests that the price of Cardano is either in sub-wave three or five.
The short-term Fibonacci level of the downside is $0.32, formed by the 1.27 external Fibonacci retracement level used at the height of the triangle. If the sub-wave five extends, Cardano price could continue to decline towards the $0.23,1.61 external Fibonacci level.
A rise of $0.43 above a sub-wave low (red line) would invalidate this Cardano price prediction and instead suggest that a correction has already been completed.
ADA Price Prediction for 2025
Although ADA price predictions more than two years ago are difficult to predict, the current crypto market cycle may provide clues as to where the price of Cardano will be in 2025.
It looks like ADA price has completed a five-wave upward movement that started in March. As a result it is now being fixed. So far, the correction has taken 0.786 of the time of the upward movement (white).
The weekly chart also supports the wave count findings. This indicates that the bottom will reach either the $0.32 or $0.23 levels. There is channel support for the former (green circle) and fib support for the latter (red circle).
If ADA price declines later, the Fib Time Zone Tool predicts a bottom in February 2023. In the case of the former, the bottom will be reached in the next few weeks.
It is worth mentioning that the next BTC halving block will occur at 840,000, which is expected to occur on March 21, 2024. The previous halving was the catalyst for the current bullish cycle. So it is possible that the same thing will happen this time as well.
It is possible to draw a resistance line connecting the 2018 and 2021 highs. Depending on when the ADA price reaches, the resistance line will be near $5. If ADA manages to break this, the rate of increase is likely to accelerate, which will take it to $10.
If, however, ADA price fails to reach the bottom and falls below the 2020 low of $0.017, it will invalidate the Cardano price prediction.
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