Undoubtedly, 2022 has been a ‘year of horrors’ for bitcoin and its brethren. However, the crypto industry and markets have happened many times before.
There have been four major bull/bear cycles in bitcoin’s short 12-year history. Every so often, property and industry are ruined and declared doom and die by the mainstream media.
Furthermore, according to 99Bitcoins’ obituary page, bitcoin has ‘died’ 467 times! The first BTC “death” occurred in December 2010, and the most recent occurred on November 30, 2022. The year with the most ‘deaths’ was 2017, when mainstream media wrote about the property at least 124 times.
The world’s largest institutional crypto asset manager, Grayscale, summarizes ten incidents where bitcoin has bounced back from catastrophic crashes.
bitcoin bouncing back
The first major decline in BTC price occurred in 2011, when the asset declined by 99%. The fallout from the Mt Gox hack and meltdown caused prices to drop from $32 to $0.01 on the embattled exchange.
In late 2013, bitcoin plunged 80% in 24 hours after the Chinese government banned financial institutions from using the asset as payment.
In February 2014, another Mt. Gox hack resulted in a nearly 60% drop in BTC prices. The exchange handled 80% of the world’s bitcoin trading at the time.
The DAO hack in mid-2015 affected both Ethereum and Bitcoin prices at the time. Ethereum was a hard fork. The existing chain became Ethereum Classic (ETC), and the new blockchain became Ethereum (ETH) as we know it today. There was also a Bitfinex hack in 2016, which resulted in a drop in BTC prices.
The massive crackdown on Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in 2018 saw BTC prices plummet by 84% by the end of that year. After reaching a peak of $20,000 in late 2017, the price dropped to $3,200.
In March 2020, the price of BTC skyrocketed when the governments of the world started their lockdown regimes and the markets fell. That black swan event saw BTC drop to around $5,000 with a loss of over 50%.
Bitcoin markets saw two capitulations this year in May and November. Both of those followed the collapse of the Terra/Luna and FTX flagship platforms, respectively. The first was a 50% drop in BTC price in two slides in May and June as it dropped from $40,000 to $20,000. The second resulted in a 25% crash following the FTX bearish.
Bitcoin has bounced back after every event so far, and there’s no reason it won’t do so again this time around.
To give things some perspective, BTC is currently trading 134% higher than it was three years ago.
btc price in 2023
BTC price is down by 63.5% since the beginning of 2022. They reached the bottom of the bear cycle at $15,700 on November 22, but have since gained some restraint to remain range bound.
According to analysts, a bull market signal is not expected until mid-2023. Till then, the consolidation is likely to continue with a slight upside chance to retest the $20,000 level.
If history rhymes, the May 2024 BTC halving event will be the primary catalyst for a bull run. The year before the halving saw a slight recovery before bulls turned back following a cut in block rewards.
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